Will Toy Story 5 have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?

Q: Will Toy Story 5 have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?

Prediction markets currently price this at 89%. A YES share costs 89.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 12.4% over 4.7mo.

Which movie has 3rd biggest opening weekend in 2026?$32k liquidity$9k volumecloses 4.7mo

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Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 89.0¢
Implied chance: 89.0%
Return if right: 12.4%
Spread cost: 5%

If you put in $100

You get 112.4 shares at 89.0¢ each.

YES wins: $112.36 back, a profit of $12.36. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.63 of that profit. Without it you would make $12.99.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 12.0¢
Implied chance: 12.0%
Return if right: 733.3%
Spread cost: 5%

If you put in $100

You get 833.3 shares at 12.0¢ each.

NO wins: $833.33 back, a profit of $733.33. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $36.23 of that profit. Without it you would make $769.57.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 01:08 PM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will Toy Story 5 have the 3rd best domestic opening weekend …”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses the third-most domestically on its opening weekend among all movies in 2026. The "Weekend Box Office Performance" table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses the third-most on its 3-day domestic opening weekend among all movies in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The named movies will be primarily ranked by domestic opening weekend gross. If two or more movies are tied on domestic opening weekend gross, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the movies' listed titles. This market will resolve to the movie that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses the 3rd-place ranking after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.