Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Hampshire be less than 500,000?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 0.9¢
- Implied chance
- 0.9%
- Return if right
- 11011.1%
- Spread cost
- 39%
If you put in $100
You get 11111.1 shares at 0.9¢ each.
YES wins: $11111.11 back, a profit of $11011.11. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $7070.71 of that profit. Without it you would make $18081.82.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.8¢
- Implied chance
- 99.8%
- Return if right
- 0.2%
- Spread cost
- 64%
If you put in $100
You get 100.2 shares at 99.8¢ each.
NO wins: $100.20 back, a profit of $0.20. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.35 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.55.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 24, 03:16 AM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Sununu will fight Pappas for Senate seat in New Hampshire as battleground heats up for RepublicansCBS News · 15d ago
- New Hampshire emerges as potential Senate battlegroundThe Hill · 15d ago
- Five takeaways from the New Hampshire primaries and an under-the-radar Senate raceThe Washington Post · 15d ago
- Pappas-Sununu showdown set in Democrats' must-win Senate race: 3 takeaways from New HampshireThe Hill · 15d ago
- John E. Sununu Wins Republican Senate Primary in New HampshireThe New York Times · 15d ago
- Trump-backed John Sununu wins New Hampshire Republican Senate primaryThe Guardian · 15d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senat…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Hampshire. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Hampshire, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other outcomes in New Hampshire Senate Election: Turnout
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from New Hampshire be between 750,000 and 800,000?
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