Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana be between 450,000 and 500,000?

Q: Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana be between 450,000 and 500,000?

Prediction markets currently price this at 35%. A YES share costs 35.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 185.7% over 2.1mo.

Montana Senate Election: Turnout$246 liquidity$41 volumecloses 2.1mo

turnoutMidtermsPoliticsElectionsMidterm MOVMontana Midterm

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 35.0¢
Implied chance: 35.0%
Return if right: 185.7%
Spread cost: 58%

If you put in $100

You get 285.7 shares at 35.0¢ each.

YES wins: $285.71 back, a profit of $185.71. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $254.83 of that profit. Without it you would make $440.54.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 98.0¢
Implied chance: 98.0%
Return if right: 2.0%
Spread cost: 91%

If you put in $100

You get 102.0 shares at 98.0¢ each.

NO wins: $102.04 back, a profit of $2.04. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $20.66 of that profit. Without it you would make $22.70.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 31, 02:31 PM1 further outcome not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Montana, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.