Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois be between 4,500,000 and 4,750,000?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 19.0¢
- Implied chance
- 19.0%
- Return if right
- 426.3%
- Spread cost
- 16%
If you put in $100
You get 526.3 shares at 19.0¢ each.
YES wins: $526.32 back, a profit of $426.32. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $79.74 of that profit. Without it you would make $506.06.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 86.0¢
- Implied chance
- 86.0%
- Return if right
- 16.3%
- Spread cost
- 18%
If you put in $100
You get 116.3 shares at 86.0¢ each.
NO wins: $116.28 back, a profit of $16.28. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.48 of that profit. Without it you would make $19.76.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 28, 08:20 PM2 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Ohio family decries use of photo in Republican Senate adThe Hill · 1h ago
- Vermont senator says he disagrees with Trump's tariffs on CanadaCBS News · 5h ago
- What Hasan Piker could mean for Democrats’ Senate hopesThe Hill · 8h ago
- Senator Chris Murphy calls idea mass immigration is putting US at risk a 'fake problem'Fox News · 8h ago
- California Senate passes bill to ban memecoin issuance by public officialsCointelegraph · 8h ago
- Democratic senators demand Israeli government halt West Bank settlement expansion plansThe Hill · 8h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senat…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other outcomes in Illinois Senate Election: Turnout
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois be between 3,250,000 and 3,500,000?
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois be between 4,000,000 and 4,250,000?
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois be between 3,750,000 and 4,000,000?
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois be less than 3,250,000?
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois be between 3,500,000 and 3,750,000?
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois be 4,750,000 or more?
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois be between 4,250,000 and 4,500,000?