Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas be less than 600,000?

Q: Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas be less than 600,000?

Prediction markets currently price this at 1%. A YES share costs 0.9¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 11011.1% over 21d.

Arkansas Senate Election: Turnout$12k liquidity$1k volumecloses 21d

turnoutMidtermsPoliticsElectionsMidterm MOVSenate Elections

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 0.9¢
Implied chance: 0.9%
Return if right: 11011.1%
Spread cost: 45%

If you put in $100

You get 11111.1 shares at 0.9¢ each.

YES wins: $11111.11 back, a profit of $11011.11. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $8888.89 of that profit. Without it you would make $19900.00.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.9¢
Implied chance: 99.9%
Return if right: 0.1%
Spread cost: 80%

If you put in $100

You get 100.1 shares at 99.9¢ each.

NO wins: $100.10 back, a profit of $0.10. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.40 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.50.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Oct 14, 12:57 AM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.