Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska be between 305,000 and 320,000?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 71.0¢
- Implied chance
- 71.0%
- Return if right
- 40.8%
- Spread cost
- 74%
If you put in $100
You get 140.8 shares at 71.0¢ each.
YES wins: $140.85 back, a profit of $40.85. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $115.57 of that profit. Without it you would make $156.41.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 93.0¢
- Implied chance
- 93.0%
- Return if right
- 7.5%
- Spread cost
- 88%
If you put in $100
You get 107.5 shares at 93.0¢ each.
NO wins: $107.53 back, a profit of $7.53. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $56.41 of that profit. Without it you would make $63.93.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 30, 10:28 AM2 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Fact-Checking Senate Races in Georgia, Alaska and TexasThe New York Times · 1d ago
- Alaska’s weird (and important) Senate raceThe Washington Post · 4d ago
- SEEING DOUBLE: Second Dan Sullivan advances, setting up bizarre Alaska Senate ballotFox News · 4d ago
- Man with Sen. Dan Sullivan's name advances from Alaska U.S. Senate primaryCBS News · 4d ago
- Two Dan Sullivans to appear on Alaska’s US Senate ballot in November’s midterm electionsThe Guardian · 4d ago
- In Headache for Republicans, Second Dan Sullivan Advances in Alaska Senate RaceThe New York Times · 4d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senat…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the first round of the general election 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other outcomes in Alaska Senate Election: Turnout (First Round)
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska be less than 230,000?
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska be between 290,000 and 305,000?
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska be between 230,000 and 245,000?
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska be 320,000 or more?
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska be between 245,000 and 260,000?
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska be between 260,000 and 275,000?
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Alaska be between 275,000 and 290,000?