Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii be between 370,000 and 400,000?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 44.0¢
- Implied chance
- 44.0%
- Return if right
- 127.3%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 227.3 shares at 44.0¢ each.
YES wins: $227.27 back, a profit of $127.27. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.61 of that profit. Without it you would make $129.89.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 57.0¢
- Implied chance
- 57.0%
- Return if right
- 75.4%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 175.4 shares at 57.0¢ each.
NO wins: $175.44 back, a profit of $75.44. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.55 of that profit. Without it you would make $76.99.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 24, 04:21 AM3 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Hurricane Polo fuels fears of landslides in Mexico as Nolo closes in on HawaiiNPR · 1h ago
- Hawaii is facing another hurricane watch as new storm closes inCBS News · 6h ago
- Hurricane to Threaten Hawaii With Flooding Over WeekendBloomberg · 16h ago
- Hawaii doctor found guilty of trying to kill wife during hike denied new trialABC News · 5d ago
- Weather tracker: Hurricane Lowell pounds Hawaii’s western islandsThe Guardian · 13d ago
- ‘Hawaii Five-O’ Movie in the Works From ‘Spider-Man: Brand New Day’ Director Destin Daniel CrettonVariety · 13d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Gover…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other outcomes in Hawaii Governor Election: Turnout
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii be between 310,000 and 340,000?
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii be between 400,000 and 430,000?
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii be less than 310,000?
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii be 490,000 or more?
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii be between 340,000 and 370,000?
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii be between 430,000 and 460,000?
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii be between 460,000 and 490,000?