Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California be between 12,500,000 and 13,000,000?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 34.0¢
- Implied chance
- 34.0%
- Return if right
- 194.1%
- Spread cost
- 9%
If you put in $100
You get 294.1 shares at 34.0¢ each.
YES wins: $294.12 back, a profit of $194.12. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $18.38 of that profit. Without it you would make $212.50.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 70.0¢
- Implied chance
- 70.0%
- Return if right
- 42.9%
- Spread cost
- 9%
If you put in $100
You get 142.9 shares at 70.0¢ each.
NO wins: $142.86 back, a profit of $42.86. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.20 of that profit. Without it you would make $47.06.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 24, 09:10 AM4 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Gover…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Other outcomes in California Governor Election: Turnout
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California be between 12,000,000 and 12,500,000?
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California be between 11,000,000 and 11,500,000?
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California be 14,500,000 or more?
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California be between 13,500,000 and 14,000,000?
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California be between 14,000,000 and 14,500,000?
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California be between 11,500,000 and 12,000,000?
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California be between 10,500,000 and 11,000,000?
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California be between 13,000,000 and 13,500,000?
- Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of California be less than 10,500,000?