Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?

Q: Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?

Prediction markets currently price this at 1%. A YES share costs 1.1¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 8990.9% over 4.7mo.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?$64k liquidity$1.5M volumecloses 4.7mo

Trump-MachadoRewards 20, 4.5, 50VenezuelaTrumpPoliticsGeopolitics

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 1.1¢
Implied chance: 1.1%
Return if right: 8990.9%
Spread cost: 14%

If you put in $100

You get 9090.9 shares at 1.1¢ each.

YES wins: $9090.91 back, a profit of $8990.91. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1435.41 of that profit. Without it you would make $10426.32.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.2¢
Implied chance: 99.2%
Return if right: 0.8%
Spread cost: 16%

If you put in $100

You get 100.8 shares at 99.2¢ each.

NO wins: $100.81 back, a profit of $0.81. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.15 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.96.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

No Head of State0.9%

Latest: Aug 10, 02:18 PM9 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.