Will there be less than 85m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?

Q: Will there be less than 85m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?

Prediction markets currently price this at 4%. A YES share costs 4.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 2400.0% over 2.8mo.

2026 Midterms: House Turnout$11k liquidity$572 volumecloses 2.8mo

ElectionsPoliticsvotesCongressUS Electionhouse of representatives

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 4.0¢
Implied chance: 4.0%
Return if right: 2400.0%
Spread cost: 24%

If you put in $100

You get 2500.0 shares at 4.0¢ each.

YES wins: $2500.00 back, a profit of $2400.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $778.69 of that profit. Without it you would make $3178.69.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 97.9¢
Implied chance: 97.9%
Return if right: 2.1%
Spread cost: 32%

If you put in $100

You get 102.1 shares at 97.9¢ each.

NO wins: $102.15 back, a profit of $2.15. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.00 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.15.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 10, 07:22 PM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted2 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.