Will there be exactly 9 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?

Q: Will there be exactly 9 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?

Prediction markets currently price this at 8%. A YES share costs 7.8¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 1182.1% over 4.7mo.

How many UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?$878 liquidity$806 volumecloses 4.7mo

UKClactonPoliticsElectionsUnited KingdomUK Labour Leadership

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 7.8¢
Implied chance: 7.8%
Return if right: 1182.1%
Spread cost: 42%

If you put in $100

You get 1282.1 shares at 7.8¢ each.

YES wins: $1282.05 back, a profit of $1182.05. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $868.49 of that profit. Without it you would make $2050.54.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 98.5¢
Implied chance: 98.5%
Return if right: 1.5%
Spread cost: 69%

If you put in $100

You get 101.5 shares at 98.5¢ each.

NO wins: $101.52 back, a profit of $1.52. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.35 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.88.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 10, 05:25 PM

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the total number of UK parliamentary by-elections held in 2026. Qualifying by-elections must be elections to the UK House of Commons for a vacant parliamentary seat, with polling day scheduled and held within the 2026 calendar year. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).