Will there be exactly 1 North Korea test in September 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 31.0¢
- Implied chance
- 31.0%
- Return if right
- 222.6%
- Spread cost
- 7%
If you put in $100
You get 322.6 shares at 31.0¢ each.
YES wins: $322.58 back, a profit of $222.58. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $16.40 of that profit. Without it you would make $238.98.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 72.0¢
- Implied chance
- 72.0%
- Return if right
- 38.9%
- Spread cost
- 7%
If you put in $100
You get 138.9 shares at 72.0¢ each.
NO wins: $138.89 back, a profit of $38.89. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.96 of that profit. Without it you would make $41.84.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- North Korea: Will Trump-Kim talks happen anytime soon?Deutsche Welle · 19h ago
- Trump claims North Korea has 57 nuclear weaponsCBS News · 1d ago
- North Korea launches missiles as Trump seeks Kim Jong Un meeting this yearCBS News · 2d ago
- North Korea fires ballistic missiles as US-South Korea drills near endAl Jazeera · 2d ago
- North Korea launches missiles, Seoul says, after Trump floats Kim meetFrance 24 · 2d ago
- Trump plans to meet with North Korea's Kim Jong UnCBS News · 2d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will there be exactly 1 North Korea test in September 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during September 2026, Pyongyang Time. If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began. Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify. Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify. Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.