Will there be exactly 1 North Korea test in October 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 14.5¢
- Implied chance
- 14.5%
- Return if right
- 589.7%
- Spread cost
- 10%
If you put in $100
You get 689.7 shares at 14.5¢ each.
YES wins: $689.66 back, a profit of $589.66. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $65.06 of that profit. Without it you would make $654.72.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 88.0¢
- Implied chance
- 88.0%
- Return if right
- 13.6%
- Spread cost
- 11%
If you put in $100
You get 113.6 shares at 88.0¢ each.
NO wins: $113.64 back, a profit of $13.64. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.64 of that profit. Without it you would make $15.27.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- North Korea missile could put Guam in range as Kim rebuffs Trump outreach: expertFox News · 8h ago
- Chainalysis Used AI to Trace the $387M Bitget Hack Back to North KoreaDecrypt · 2d ago
- North Korea fires ballistic missile after Seoul demands apologySky News · 2d ago
- North Korea launches ballistic missile after Seoul demands apology over wounded soldiersThe Guardian · 2d ago
- North Korea launches ballistic missile as tensions with Seoul grow over border mine blastsFrance 24 · 2d ago
- North Korea fires ballistic missile towards the sea, South Korea saysAl Jazeera · 2d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will there be exactly 1 North Korea test in October 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during October 2026, Pyongyang Time. If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began. Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify. Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify. Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.