Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 21.0¢
- Implied chance
- 21.0%
- Return if right
- 376.2%
- Spread cost
- 15%
If you put in $100
You get 476.2 shares at 21.0¢ each.
YES wins: $476.19 back, a profit of $376.19. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $64.35 of that profit. Without it you would make $440.54.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 84.0¢
- Implied chance
- 84.0%
- Return if right
- 19.0%
- Spread cost
- 16%
If you put in $100
You get 119.0 shares at 84.0¢ each.
NO wins: $119.05 back, a profit of $19.05. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.65 of that profit. Without it you would make $22.70.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 11, 06:38 AM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Other outcomes in How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
- Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
- Will there be 20 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
- Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
- Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?