Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 96.0¢
- Implied chance
- 96.0%
- Return if right
- 4.2%
- Spread cost
- 21%
If you put in $100
You get 104.2 shares at 96.0¢ each.
YES wins: $104.17 back, a profit of $4.17. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.10 of that profit. Without it you would make $5.26.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 6.0¢
- Implied chance
- 6.0%
- Return if right
- 1566.7%
- Spread cost
- 18%
If you put in $100
You get 1666.7 shares at 6.0¢ each.
NO wins: $1666.67 back, a profit of $1566.67. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $333.33 of that profit. Without it you would make $1900.00.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 08:33 PM1 further outcome not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 202…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Other outcomes in Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
- Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
- Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
- Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
- Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
- Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?