Will there be at least 15,000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by August 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 90.0¢
- Implied chance
- 90.0%
- Return if right
- 11.1%
- Spread cost
- 73%
If you put in $100
You get 111.1 shares at 90.0¢ each.
YES wins: $111.11 back, a profit of $11.11. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $30.73 of that profit. Without it you would make $41.84.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 49.0¢
- Implied chance
- 49.0%
- Return if right
- 104.1%
- Spread cost
- 56%
If you put in $100
You get 204.1 shares at 49.0¢ each.
NO wins: $204.08 back, a profit of $104.08. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $134.90 of that profit. Without it you would make $238.98.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will there be at least 15,000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed domestically acquired cases of cyclosporiasis in humans in the territory of the United States of America since May 1, 2026, according to the CDC surveillance count by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Surveillance of Cyclosporiasis page’s “U.S. cases reported to CDC” count (see: https://www.cdc.gov/cyclosporiasis/php/surveillance/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC as confirmed domestically acquired cases of cyclosporiasis will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources. Travel-associated cases acquired outside the United States will not qualify.