Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 12.7¢
- Implied chance
- 12.7%
- Return if right
- 687.4%
- Spread cost
- 1%
If you put in $100
You get 787.4 shares at 12.7¢ each.
YES wins: $787.40 back, a profit of $687.40. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $6.25 of that profit. Without it you would make $693.65.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 87.5¢
- Implied chance
- 87.5%
- Return if right
- 14.3%
- Spread cost
- 1%
If you put in $100
You get 114.3 shares at 87.5¢ each.
NO wins: $114.29 back, a profit of $14.29. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.13 of that profit. Without it you would make $14.42.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 04:05 PM
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
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How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?). The rules and resolution criteria are as follows: 1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31? This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown. The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/). 2. Which party will win the House in 2026? This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives. If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”. Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.