Will there be 40 or more average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 8.0¢
- Implied chance
- 8.0%
- Return if right
- 1150.0%
- Spread cost
- 7%
If you put in $100
You get 1250.0 shares at 8.0¢ each.
YES wins: $1250.00 back, a profit of $1150.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $83.33 of that profit. Without it you would make $1233.33.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 93.0¢
- Implied chance
- 93.0%
- Return if right
- 7.5%
- Spread cost
- 7%
If you put in $100
You get 107.5 shares at 93.0¢ each.
NO wins: $107.53 back, a profit of $7.53. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.58 of that profit. Without it you would make $8.11.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Breaking down Iran's new set of demands over the Strait of HormuzCBS News · 7h ago
- Strait of Hormuz access remains uncertain as Trump says the U.S. is "semi-negotiating" with IranCBS News · 7h ago
- Iran makes demands before reaching deal with Oman on Strait of HormuzCBS News · 9h ago
- Iran sets new terms for reopening the Strait of HormuzCBS News · 10h ago
- Trump insists negotiations with Iran are occurring as Oman talks on Strait of Hormuz continueCBS News · 10h ago
- Iran Insists Strait of Hormuz Will Stay Closed Until Trump Agrees to DemandsThe New York Times · 12h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will there be 40 or more average daily transits of the Bab e…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Source: IMF PortWatch
Other outcomes in Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?
- Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31?
- Will there be between 35 and 39 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31?
- Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31?
- Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31?