Will there be 4-6 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?

Q: Will there be 4-6 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?

Prediction markets currently price this at 6%. A YES share costs 5.5¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 1718.2% over 1.8mo.

How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?$4k liquidity$17k volumecloses 1.8mo

WeatherclimatehurricaneHurricanes

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 5.5¢
Implied chance: 5.5%
Return if right: 1718.2%
Spread cost: 27%

If you put in $100

You get 1818.2 shares at 5.5¢ each.

YES wins: $1818.18 back, a profit of $1718.18. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $620.84 of that profit. Without it you would make $2339.02.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 97.3¢
Implied chance: 97.3%
Return if right: 2.8%
Spread cost: 35%

If you put in $100

You get 102.8 shares at 97.3¢ each.

NO wins: $102.77 back, a profit of $2.77. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.50 of that profit. Without it you would make $4.28.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Oct 8, 12:57 AM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.

Source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php