Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in August 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 33.0¢
- Implied chance
- 33.0%
- Return if right
- 203.0%
- Spread cost
- 7%
If you put in $100
You get 303.0 shares at 33.0¢ each.
YES wins: $303.03 back, a profit of $203.03. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $14.43 of that profit. Without it you would make $217.46.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 70.0¢
- Implied chance
- 70.0%
- Return if right
- 42.9%
- Spread cost
- 7%
If you put in $100
You get 142.9 shares at 70.0¢ each.
NO wins: $142.86 back, a profit of $42.86. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.13 of that profit. Without it you would make $45.99.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Bybit Sues North Korea Over $1.5B Hack, Wins Order Freezing AssetsDecrypt · 12h ago
- North Korea’s Kimsuky integrates AI into cyberattacks targeting crypto and financeThe Block · 13h ago
- North Korea’s hackers using AI for attacks, cybersecurity firm saysAl Jazeera · 14h ago
- North Korea may deploy up to 50,000 troops to Russia, Zelensky claimsFrance 24 · 1d ago
- US court backs Bybit’s bid to trace funds from $1.5B North Korea hackCointelegraph · 3d ago
- North Korea expert warns US can 'never take their eye off' Kim Jong Un following missile test during Iran warFox News · 3d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will there be 3 or more North Korea tests in August 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during August 2026, Pyongyang Time. If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began. Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify. Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify. Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.