Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 18.0¢
- Implied chance
- 18.0%
- Return if right
- 455.6%
- Spread cost
- 10%
If you put in $100
You get 555.6 shares at 18.0¢ each.
YES wins: $555.56 back, a profit of $455.56. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $50.51 of that profit. Without it you would make $506.06.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 85.0¢
- Implied chance
- 85.0%
- Return if right
- 17.6%
- Spread cost
- 11%
If you put in $100
You get 117.6 shares at 85.0¢ each.
NO wins: $117.65 back, a profit of $17.65. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.11 of that profit. Without it you would make $19.76.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 23, 11:18 PM1 further outcome not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will there be 2 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldw…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 24, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and August 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Source: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/
Other outcomes in How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide August 24 - August 30?
- Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
- Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
- Will there be 3 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
- Will there be 4 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
- Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
- Will there be 5 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?