Will there be 1 US aircraft carrier in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 23.0¢
- Implied chance
- 23.0%
- Return if right
- 334.8%
- Spread cost
- 11%
If you put in $100
You get 434.8 shares at 23.0¢ each.
YES wins: $434.78 back, a profit of $334.78. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $41.41 of that profit. Without it you would make $376.19.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 81.0¢
- Implied chance
- 81.0%
- Return if right
- 23.5%
- Spread cost
- 12%
If you put in $100
You get 123.5 shares at 81.0¢ each.
NO wins: $123.46 back, a profit of $23.46. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.13 of that profit. Without it you would make $26.58.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Last US troops complete 'orderly departure' from Iraq, CENTCOM saysABC News · 5d ago
- Centcom: Over 1B crude oil barrels passed through Hormuz strait in recent monthsThe Hill · 15d ago
- CACI’s (CACI) New CENTCOM Contract Arrives With Some Fine PrintYahoo Finance · 17d ago
- US CENTCOM tells Al Jazeera Hormuz blockade ‘highly effective’Al Jazeera · 18d ago
- Centcom commander 'not concerned at all' about munitions stockpilesThe Hill · 21d ago
- U.S. forces destroy 5 Iranian oil tankers, CENTCOM saysCBS News · 26d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will there be 1 US aircraft carrier in CENTCOM on November 3…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the number of U.S. Navy aircraft carriers physically located within the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility at 12:00 PM ET on November 30, 2026. For the purposes of this market, “aircraft carriers” refers only to U.S. Navy aircraft carriers designated CVN (e.g., Nimitz-class and Gerald R. Ford-class carriers). Amphibious assault ships (LHA/LHD), other vessels, and ships of any other country will not count. A carrier will count if it is within the CENTCOM area of responsibility at the specified time, including while making a port call or other stop within the area. A carrier outside the CENTCOM area of responsibility at the specified time (e.g., in transit, or making a port call in the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command or U.S. European Command areas of responsibility) will not count, regardless of whether it is assigned to CENTCOM operations. A carrier that enters the area on November 30, 2026 will count only if it entered at or before 12:00 PM ET; a carrier that departs the area on November 30, 2026 will count only if it departed after 12:00 PM ET. Carrier locations will be determined by official information from the U.S. Navy, the U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, or U.S. European Command, or by a consensus of credible reporting, and may be established by information published after the specified time. In the event of ambiguity as to the number of carriers within the area at the specified time, this market will remain open until the earlier of: (i) confirmation of the relevant carriers' locations at the specified time, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) following November 30, 2026. The market will resolve based on the totality of information available at that time. Any carrier whose presence within the area at the specified time remains materially ambiguous at that point will not be counted. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States government and military, including the U.S. Navy, the Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, and U.S. European Command, and a consensus of credible reporting.