Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?
BUY NO
- Cost
- 1.6¢
- Implied chance
- 1.6%
- Return if right
- 6150.0%
- Spread cost
- n/a
If you put in $100
You get 6250.0 shares at 1.6¢ each.
NO wins: $6250.00 back, a profit of $6150.00. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Nu Holdings Banks More Than Half the Adults in BrazilYahoo Finance · 8h ago
- Construction workers find $10 million gold stash in renovationsCBS News · 12h ago
- Shake Shack worker allegedly calls out before robbing own restaurant, returns in uniform 2 days laterFox News · 19h ago
- Construction workers uncover $10 million in gold while building sewer under former breweryFox News · 20h ago
- Lula holds slim lead over Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil electionAl Jazeera · 20h ago
- Lula’s Lead Over Bolsonaro Narrows in Brazil Election PollBloomberg · 23h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazi…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
The 2026 Brazil presidential election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. Political parties must file candidate registration applications with the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) for the 2026 Brazil presidential election by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) files a candidate registration application nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for President of Brazil by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A filing by a coalition (coligação) or party federation (federação partidária) that includes the PT and names Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its presidential candidate will also qualify. This market will resolve based on the filing date (Data de Autuação) of an applicable Application for Registration of Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura, RRC). An Application for Registration of Individual Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura Individual, RRCI) will not qualify for resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be official filings from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.