Will the Virginia 2026 Senate race be within 1%?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 4.0¢
- Implied chance
- 4.0%
- Return if right
- 2400.0%
- Spread cost
- 45%
If you put in $100
You get 2500.0 shares at 4.0¢ each.
YES wins: $2500.00 back, a profit of $2400.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1944.44 of that profit. Without it you would make $4344.44.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.5¢
- Implied chance
- 99.5%
- Return if right
- 0.5%
- Spread cost
- 78%
If you put in $100
You get 100.5 shares at 99.5¢ each.
NO wins: $100.50 back, a profit of $0.50. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.80 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.30.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 22, 03:12 AM4 further outcomes not shown
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Man suffered brain injury and severe bruising after ICE arrest in Virginia, records showThe Guardian · 1d ago
- Illegal immigrant released under Biden accused of stabbing Virginia mother, dousing her in gasolineFox News · 2d ago
- Chiefs' Eric Bieniemy returns to camp after wife gives 'blessing' as she recovers from Virginia home shootingFox News · 3d ago
- Teacher says 8-foot python blamed by officials for Virginia school fire is innocentNBC News · 3d ago
- Virginia teacher and firefighters feud over whether a python started schoolhouse fireThe Guardian · 4d ago
- Virginia man acquitted by insanity in killing flees US during 48-hour mental hospital passFox News · 4d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the Virginia 2026 Senate race be within 1%?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined. The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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