Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by November 30, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 98.9¢
- Implied chance
- 98.9%
- Return if right
- 1.1%
- Spread cost
- 64%
If you put in $100
You get 101.1 shares at 98.9¢ each.
YES wins: $101.11 back, a profit of $1.11. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.98 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.09.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 4.9¢
- Implied chance
- 4.9%
- Return if right
- 1940.8%
- Spread cost
- 40%
If you put in $100
You get 2040.8 shares at 4.9¢ each.
NO wins: $2040.82 back, a profit of $1940.82. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1292.52 of that profit. Without it you would make $3233.33.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Last US troops complete 'orderly departure' from Iraq, CENTCOM saysABC News · 5d ago
- Centcom: Over 1B crude oil barrels passed through Hormuz strait in recent monthsThe Hill · 15d ago
- CACI’s (CACI) New CENTCOM Contract Arrives With Some Fine PrintYahoo Finance · 17d ago
- US CENTCOM tells Al Jazeera Hormuz blockade ‘highly effective’Al Jazeera · 18d ago
- Centcom commander 'not concerned at all' about munitions stockpilesThe Hill · 21d ago
- U.S. forces destroy 5 Iranian oil tankers, CENTCOM saysCBS News · 26d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the USS Theodore Roosevelt arrive in CENTCOM by Novembe…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71) enters the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The Roosevelt will be considered to have entered the CENTCOM area of responsibility upon confirmation by the U.S. Navy, the U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, or U.S. Indo-Pacific Command that the ship has entered the CENTCOM area of responsibility or the U.S. 5th Fleet area of operations, or upon a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the ship has physically entered the CENTCOM area of responsibility. The arrival must occur by the listed deadline. In the event of ambiguity as to whether the USS Theodore Roosevelt entered the specified area by the specified time, this market will remain open until the earlier of: (i) confirmation that the USS Theodore Roosevelt entered the specified area by the listed deadline, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) following the listed deadline. The market will resolve based on the totality of information available at that time. If there is material ambiguity as to whether the USS Theodore Roosevelt entered the specified area by that time, this market will resolve to “No.” Port calls, exercises, or other operations outside the CENTCOM area of responsibility, including in the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command area of responsibility, will not qualify. Announcements, orders, schedules, or reports that the ship will arrive, is en route, or is heading to the Middle East will not qualify absent confirmation that the qualifying arrival has occurred. A qualifying arrival will count regardless of the ship's subsequent movements or tasking. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States government and military, including the U.S. Navy, the Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, and U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, and a consensus of credible reporting.