Will the USS George H.W. Bush be in CENTCOM on October 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 64.0¢
- Implied chance
- 64.0%
- Return if right
- 56.3%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 156.3 shares at 64.0¢ each.
YES wins: $156.25 back, a profit of $56.25. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.48 of that profit. Without it you would make $58.73.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 38.0¢
- Implied chance
- 38.0%
- Return if right
- 163.2%
- Spread cost
- 4%
If you put in $100
You get 263.2 shares at 38.0¢ each.
NO wins: $263.16 back, a profit of $163.16. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $7.11 of that profit. Without it you would make $170.27.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Last US troops complete 'orderly departure' from Iraq, CENTCOM saysABC News · 8d ago
- Centcom: Over 1B crude oil barrels passed through Hormuz strait in recent monthsThe Hill · 18d ago
- CACI’s (CACI) New CENTCOM Contract Arrives With Some Fine PrintYahoo Finance · 20d ago
- US CENTCOM tells Al Jazeera Hormuz blockade ‘highly effective’Al Jazeera · 21d ago
- Centcom commander 'not concerned at all' about munitions stockpilesThe Hill · 24d ago
- U.S. forces destroy 5 Iranian oil tankers, CENTCOM saysCBS News · 29d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the USS George H.W. Bush be in CENTCOM on October 31, 2…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the USS George H.W. Bush (CVN-77) is physically located within the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility at 12:00 PM ET on the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The ship's location will be determined by official information from the U.S. Navy, the U.S. Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, or U.S. European Command, or by a consensus of credible reporting. The ship's location at the specified time may be established by information published after that time. Port calls, temporary stops, or other movements within the CENTCOM area of responsibility will count as being within the area. Port calls, crew liberty, transits, or other movements outside the CENTCOM area of responsibility (e.g., in the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command or U.S. European Command areas of responsibility) will not count, regardless of whether the ship remains assigned to CENTCOM operations or subsequently returns. Announcements, orders, schedules, or reports that the ship will depart, will return, or is assigned to operations in the region will not by themselves establish its location. In the event of ambiguity as to whether the USS George H.W. Bush was within the specified area at the specified time, this market will remain open until the earlier of: (i) confirmation of the ship's location at the specified time, or (ii) the end of the seventh calendar day (ET) following the listed date. The market will resolve based on the totality of information available at that time. If there is material ambiguity as to whether the USS George H.W. Bush was within the specified area at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the United States government and military, including the U.S. Navy, the Department of Defense, U.S. Central Command, U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, and U.S. European Command, and a consensus of credible reporting.