Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be 35% or greater on December 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 4.3¢
- Implied chance
- 4.3%
- Return if right
- 2225.6%
- Spread cost
- 42%
If you put in $100
You get 2325.6 shares at 4.3¢ each.
YES wins: $2325.58 back, a profit of $2225.58. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1595.99 of that profit. Without it you would make $3821.57.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 99.2¢
- Implied chance
- 99.2%
- Return if right
- 0.8%
- Spread cost
- 69%
If you put in $100
You get 100.8 shares at 99.2¢ each.
NO wins: $100.81 back, a profit of $0.81. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.81 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.62.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be 35% or greater on Dece…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on December 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate). Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.