Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 3.4¢
- Implied chance
- 3.4%
- Return if right
- 2841.2%
- Spread cost
- 3%
If you put in $100
You get 2941.2 shares at 3.4¢ each.
YES wins: $2941.18 back, a profit of $2841.18. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $89.13 of that profit. Without it you would make $2930.30.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.8¢
- Implied chance
- 96.8%
- Return if right
- 3.3%
- Spread cost
- 3%
If you put in $100
You get 103.3 shares at 96.8¢ each.
NO wins: $103.31 back, a profit of $3.31. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.11 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.41.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Venezuela’s Rodriguez pledges elections, path forward in UNGA speechAl Jazeera · 1h ago
- Venezuela’s Delcy Rodriguez promises elections at UN, gives no dateAl Jazeera · 2h ago
- Interim Leader of Venezuela Promises Elections and ‘Orderly Legal Transition’The New York Times · 2h ago
- After Warm Meeting With Trump, Venezuela’s Leader Is Set to Address U.N.The New York Times · 6h ago
- Venezuela Spot Oil Sales Snarled by Surging Freight CostsBloomberg · 7h ago
- Venezuela’s opposition leader blocked 3 times from returning to countryThe Hill · 8h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.