Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 2.7¢
- Implied chance
- 2.7%
- Return if right
- 3603.7%
- Spread cost
- 9%
If you put in $100
You get 3703.7 shares at 2.7¢ each.
YES wins: $3703.70 back, a profit of $3603.70. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $377.93 of that profit. Without it you would make $3981.63.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.8¢
- Implied chance
- 97.8%
- Return if right
- 2.2%
- Spread cost
- 10%
If you put in $100
You get 102.2 shares at 97.8¢ each.
NO wins: $102.25 back, a profit of $2.25. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.26 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.51.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Swiss Re announces India and Mexico partnershipsYahoo Finance · 47m ago
- Slain California fire captain’s wife admits murder after Mexico capture, serving time for killing first spouseFox News · 2d ago
- US Partly Resumes Operations in Mexico’s Avocado State MichoacanBloomberg · 3d ago
- Flesh-eating screwworms feast on humans in Mexico; human cases top 500Ars Technica · 3d ago
- US police officer accused of killing three people in Mexico arrested at borderThe Guardian · 3d ago
- Mexico and Peru restore diplomatic relations after asylum rowBBC News · 3d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.