Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 2.9¢
- Implied chance
- 2.9%
- Return if right
- 3348.3%
- Spread cost
- 9%
If you put in $100
You get 3448.3 shares at 2.9¢ each.
YES wins: $3448.28 back, a profit of $3348.28. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $325.31 of that profit. Without it you would make $3673.58.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.6¢
- Implied chance
- 97.6%
- Return if right
- 2.5%
- Spread cost
- 10%
If you put in $100
You get 102.5 shares at 97.6¢ each.
NO wins: $102.46 back, a profit of $2.46. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.26 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.72.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Greenland’s delegation gets hero’s welcome after signing US-Denmark pactAl Jazeera · 12h ago
- US war on Iran: Trump will 'declare victory and go home', embracing the 'Greenland option'France 24 · 18h ago
- Why does Greenland matter to the US?Al Jazeera · 1d ago
- Why Greenland and Denmark agreed to a deal with TrumpCBS News · 1d ago
- Trump Once Vowed to ‘Own’ Greenland. He Settled for Something Much Less.The New York Times · 2d ago
- Trump signs 'tremendous' Greenland security dealDeutsche Welle · 2d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the land territory of Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, the land territory of Greenland refers to all territory recognized by Denmark as part of the autonomous territory of Greenland within the Kingdom of Denmark, as of market creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.