Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 3.8¢
- Implied chance
- 3.8%
- Return if right
- 2531.6%
- Spread cost
- 19%
If you put in $100
You get 2631.6 shares at 3.8¢ each.
YES wins: $2631.58 back, a profit of $2531.58. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $594.23 of that profit. Without it you would make $3125.81.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.6¢
- Implied chance
- 97.6%
- Return if right
- 2.5%
- Spread cost
- 23%
If you put in $100
You get 102.5 shares at 97.6¢ each.
NO wins: $102.46 back, a profit of $2.46. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.74 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.20.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Colombia’s Earthquake Puts Abelardo De La Espriella, Its New President, to the TestThe New York Times · 47m ago
- Images Emerge From Quake-Battered ColombiaThe New York Times · 50m ago
- Colombia earthquake: Death toll rises to over 100Deutsche Welle · 2h ago
- 111 dead after Colombia quakes leave trail of destructionAl Jazeera · 2h ago
- Videos show catastrophic Colombia earthquake that caused widespread damage, deathsCBS News · 2h ago
- Deadly Earthquake Hits ColombiaBloomberg · 2h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.