Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Israel by September 30?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 8.0¢
- Implied chance
- 8.0%
- Return if right
- 1150.0%
- Spread cost
- 27%
If you put in $100
You get 1250.0 shares at 8.0¢ each.
YES wins: $1250.00 back, a profit of $1150.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $416.67 of that profit. Without it you would make $1566.67.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 96.0¢
- Implied chance
- 96.0%
- Return if right
- 4.2%
- Spread cost
- 35%
If you put in $100
You get 104.2 shares at 96.0¢ each.
NO wins: $104.17 back, a profit of $4.17. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2.22 of that profit. Without it you would make $6.38.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Anas al-Sharif: One year on from Israel’s killing of Al Jazeera reporterAl Jazeera · 34m ago
- Anguished locals watch as Israel demolishes homes in southern LebanonAl Jazeera · 7h ago
- Israel confirms death of Palestinian detainee, nearly two years lateAl Jazeera · 13h ago
- Netanyahu says Israel rejects Trump’s Gaza peace planDeutsche Welle · 17h ago
- Hasan Piker stands by 'intentionally provocative' claims that Hamas is 'a thousand times better' than IsraelFox News · 18h ago
- Murphy says Israel ‘not aligned’ with U.S. national security objectivesThe Hill · 20h ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the US House pass a bill restricting military aid to Is…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a bill that, if enacted, would impose restrictions, beyond any that exist at the time of market creation, on military assistance from the United States to Israel by September 30, 2026 at 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.