Will the US House Censure any member by October 31?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 83.0¢
- Implied chance
- 83.0%
- Return if right
- 20.5%
- Spread cost
- 23%
If you put in $100
You get 120.5 shares at 83.0¢ each.
YES wins: $120.48 back, a profit of $20.48. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $6.10 of that profit. Without it you would make $26.58.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 25.0¢
- Implied chance
- 25.0%
- Return if right
- 300.0%
- Spread cost
- 20%
If you put in $100
You get 400.0 shares at 25.0¢ each.
NO wins: $400.00 back, a profit of $300.00. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $76.19 of that profit. Without it you would make $376.19.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- GOP Women’s Caucus chair says House should follow through on Edwards censureThe Hill · 21d ago
- GOP Rep Chuck Edwards drops re-election bid after House ethics report recommends censureFox News · 22d ago
- Rep. Edwards drops competitive reelection bid after House censure recommendationThe Washington Post · 22d ago
- Chuck Edwards drops reelection bid after Ethics panel calls for censureThe Hill · 22d ago
- Rep. Chuck Edwards drops re-election bid after censure recommendation over harassment claimsNBC News · 22d ago
- Rep. Chuck Edwards drops re-election bid after censure recommendationAxios · 22d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the US House Censure any member by October 31?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US House passes a resolution of Censure against any individual who is a sitting member of the House at the time such resolution is passed, between market creation and October 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying resolution must explicitly censure the member — resolutions of reprimand, condemnation, or disapproval that do not censure will not qualify. The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government publications (e.g., https://www.congress.gov); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.