Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 34.0¢
- Implied chance
- 34.0%
- Return if right
- 194.1%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 294.1 shares at 34.0¢ each.
YES wins: $294.12 back, a profit of $194.12. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $4.39 of that profit. Without it you would make $198.51.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 67.0¢
- Implied chance
- 67.0%
- Return if right
- 49.3%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 149.3 shares at 67.0¢ each.
NO wins: $149.25 back, a profit of $49.25. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.12 of that profit. Without it you would make $50.38.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
- Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)33.5%
- Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)62.5%
- Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)4.2%
Latest: Sep 1, 10:15 AM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release. This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026. If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026. This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.