Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 2.2¢
- Implied chance
- 2.2%
- Return if right
- 4445.5%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 4545.5 shares at 2.2¢ each.
YES wins: $4545.45 back, a profit of $4445.45. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $105.71 of that profit. Without it you would make $4551.16.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.9¢
- Implied chance
- 97.9%
- Return if right
- 2.1%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 102.1 shares at 97.9¢ each.
NO wins: $102.15 back, a profit of $2.15. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $2.20.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.