Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤1.0% at the end of 2026?

Q: Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤1.0% at the end of 2026?

Prediction markets currently price this at 1%. A YES share costs 0.5¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 19900.0% over 4.0mo.

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?$30k liquidity$242k volumecloses 4.0mo

Fed RatesEconomic PolicyTrumpJerome PowellFedPolitics

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 0.5¢
Implied chance: 0.5%
Return if right: 19900.0%
Spread cost: 10%

If you put in $100

You get 20000.0 shares at 0.5¢ each.

YES wins: $20000.00 back, a profit of $19900.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2222.22 of that profit. Without it you would make $22122.22.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.6¢
Implied chance: 99.6%
Return if right: 0.4%
Spread cost: 11%

If you put in $100

You get 100.4 shares at 99.6¢ each.

NO wins: $100.40 back, a profit of $0.40. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $0.45.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Aug 10, 08:39 PM8 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≤1.…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time. The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0). The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).