Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 21.2¢
- Implied chance
- 21.2%
- Return if right
- 371.7%
- Spread cost
- 0%
If you put in $100
You get 471.7 shares at 21.2¢ each.
YES wins: $471.70 back, a profit of $371.70. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.12 of that profit. Without it you would make $372.81.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 78.9¢
- Implied chance
- 78.9%
- Return if right
- 26.7%
- Spread cost
- 0%
If you put in $100
You get 126.7 shares at 78.9¢ each.
NO wins: $126.74 back, a profit of $26.74. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.08 of that profit. Without it you would make $26.82.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 10:43 PM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report. The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Other outcomes in U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
- Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be at least 4.5%?
- Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 2.5% and 2.9%?
- Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 4.0% and 4.4%?
- Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 1.0% and 1.4%?
- Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 2.0% and 2.4%?
- Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 1.5% and 1.9%?
- Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be less than 1.0%?
- Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.0% and 3.4%?