Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 970m and 975m by October 31?

Q: Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 970m and 975m by October 31?

Prediction markets currently price this at 4%. A YES share costs 3.6¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 2677.8% over 27d.

"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by October 31?$5k liquidity$3k volumecloses 27d

MoviesCultureBox OfficeSpider-Man

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 3.6¢
Implied chance: 3.6%
Return if right: 2677.8%
Spread cost: 16%

If you put in $100

You get 2777.8 shares at 3.6¢ each.

YES wins: $2777.78 back, a profit of $2677.78. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $500.91 of that profit. Without it you would make $3178.69.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 97.5¢
Implied chance: 97.5%
Return if right: 2.6%
Spread cost: 18%

If you put in $100

You get 102.6 shares at 97.5¢ each.

NO wins: $102.56 back, a profit of $2.56. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.58 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.15.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

1H 6H 1D 1W 1M ALL

Latest: Oct 5, 05:54 AM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day …”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by October 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and October 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including October 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.