Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 1060m and 1080m by August 31?

Q: Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 1060m and 1080m by August 31?

Prediction markets currently price this at 3%. A YES share costs 3.4¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 2841.2% over 20d.

"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by August 31? (Higher Strikes)$2k liquidity$236 volumecloses 20d

MoviesCultureBox OfficeSpider-Man

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 3.4¢
Implied chance: 3.4%
Return if right: 2841.2%
Spread cost: 46%

If you put in $100

You get 2941.2 shares at 3.4¢ each.

YES wins: $2941.18 back, a profit of $2841.18. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $2464.23 of that profit. Without it you would make $5305.41.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 99.7¢
Implied chance: 99.7%
Return if right: 0.3%
Spread cost: 84%

If you put in $100

You get 100.3 shares at 99.7¢ each.

NO wins: $100.30 back, a profit of $0.30. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.58 of that profit. Without it you would make $1.88.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 11, 10:24 PM4 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to how much "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" box office will gross domestically by August 31, 2026. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the "Box Office" tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for all dates between opening (July 31, 2026) and August 31, 2026 are final (i.e., not studio estimates). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Box Office Performance until and including August 31, 2026, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures. If there is no final data available by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.