Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win fewer than 105 seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 20.0¢
- Implied chance
- 20.0%
- Return if right
- 400.0%
- Spread cost
- 32%
If you put in $100
You get 500.0 shares at 20.0¢ each.
YES wins: $500.00 back, a profit of $400.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $189.66 of that profit. Without it you would make $589.66.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 91.0¢
- Implied chance
- 91.0%
- Return if right
- 9.9%
- Spread cost
- 42%
If you put in $100
You get 109.9 shares at 91.0¢ each.
NO wins: $109.89 back, a profit of $9.89. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $7.07 of that profit. Without it you would make $16.96.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 13, 11:42 PM1 further outcome not shown
Latest news
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How this market resolves
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) as a result of this election. Seats will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the Swedish Social Democratic Party, officially registered as Arbetarepartiet-Socialdemokraterna (S). Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If S formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) in this election. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
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