Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government?

Q: Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government?

Prediction markets currently price this at 92%. A YES share costs 92.0¢ and pays $1 if it happens. That is a return of 8.7% over 5.4mo.

Which parties will be in next Swedish Government?$17k liquidity$2k volumecloses 5.4mo

SwedenPoliticsElectionsWorld ElectionsGlobal ElectionsSweden Elections

Trade on Polymarket

BUY YES

Cost: 92.0¢
Implied chance: 92.0%
Return if right: 8.7%
Spread cost: 17%

If you put in $100

You get 108.7 shares at 92.0¢ each.

YES wins: $108.70 back, a profit of $8.70. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.80 of that profit. Without it you would make $10.50.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY NO

Cost: 11.0¢
Implied chance: 11.0%
Return if right: 809.1%
Spread cost: 15%

If you put in $100

You get 909.1 shares at 11.0¢ each.

NO wins: $909.09 back, a profit of $809.09. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $143.54 of that profit. Without it you would make $952.63.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

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Latest: Aug 20, 05:37 AM3 further outcomes not shown

Latest news

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How this market resolves

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Swedish government formed after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Swedish government following the 2026 parliamentary elections is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.