Will the Safeguarding Swiss neutrality (neutrality initiative) initiative be approved in Switzerland’s September 27, 2026 popular vote?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 12.9¢
- Implied chance
- 12.9%
- Return if right
- 675.2%
- Spread cost
- 9%
If you put in $100
You get 775.2 shares at 12.9¢ each.
YES wins: $775.19 back, a profit of $675.19. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $68.69 of that profit. Without it you would make $743.88.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 89.2¢
- Implied chance
- 89.2%
- Return if right
- 12.1%
- Spread cost
- 10%
If you put in $100
You get 112.1 shares at 89.2¢ each.
NO wins: $112.11 back, a profit of $12.11. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.34 of that profit. Without it you would make $13.44.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- Switzerland is a neutral nation but has more nuclear bunkers than any country in the worldNPR · 3d ago
- Switzerland-based Octapharma to invest $1.5B in first US facilityYahoo Finance · 7d ago
- Germany, Denmark, Switzerland hit heat records as Europe sizzlesCBS News · 1mo ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the Safeguarding Swiss neutrality (neutrality initiativ…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
As of market creation, two referenda are scheduled to be held in Switzerland on September 27, 2026: - Issue 1: Popular initiative ‘Safeguarding Swiss neutrality (neutrality initiative)’ - Issue 2: Popular initiative ‘For safe food – through strengthening sustainable domestic production, increasing plant-based foods and ensuring clean drinking water (food initiative)’ This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed referendum is approved under the applicable legal threshold in the specified popular vote. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” This market will resolve to “Yes” if either the popular initiative or, where applicable, the federal counter-proposal is approved under the applicable legal threshold, regardless of any tie-breaker vote. If the referendum is officially rescheduled, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. This market will resolve to “No” if, for any reason, the results of the respective vote are not known definitively by the date the subsequent Referendum in Switzerland is scheduled to be held. The resolution source will be based on a consensus of credible reporting. In the event of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official certified referendum results published by Swiss government authorities, such as the Swiss Federal Chancellery and the information portal provided by the Swiss authorities (https://www.ch.ch/en/votes-and-elections/). Subsequent litigation, administrative challenges, or failure of any post-approval implementation steps will not be considered.