Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 40.0¢
- Implied chance
- 40.0%
- Return if right
- 150.0%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 250.0 shares at 40.0¢ each.
YES wins: $250.00 back, a profit of $150.00. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.16 of that profit. Without it you would make $153.16.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 61.0¢
- Implied chance
- 61.0%
- Return if right
- 63.9%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 163.9 shares at 61.0¢ each.
NO wins: $163.93 back, a profit of $63.93. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.35 of that profit. Without it you would make $65.29.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Sep 24, 03:57 AM
Latest news
headlines link to their publishersNo recent headlines matched this market. We only show an article when the names in the question appear in its headline, so a very local or very new market often has nothing. Showing nothing is deliberate: an unrelated story here would read like evidence about the price.
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the date (Berlin time) when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water reference mark below which shipping becomes structurally disrupted, and defines "normal levels" for this market. The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period. If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) are available on the resolution source, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." If readings for timestamps on or after November 1, 2026 (Berlin time) have not been recorded on the resolution source by November 2, 2026, 11:59 PM Berlin time, and no reading at or above 77 centimeters has been recorded for a timestamp before November 1, 2026 (Berlin time), this market will resolve to "No return before November 1, 2026." The resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100).
Source: https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100