Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the September decision?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 11.0¢
- Implied chance
- 11.0%
- Return if right
- 809.1%
- Spread cost
- 15%
If you put in $100
You get 909.1 shares at 11.0¢ each.
YES wins: $909.09 back, a profit of $809.09. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $143.54 of that profit. Without it you would make $952.63.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 92.0¢
- Implied chance
- 92.0%
- Return if right
- 8.7%
- Spread cost
- 17%
If you put in $100
You get 108.7 shares at 92.0¢ each.
NO wins: $108.70 back, a profit of $8.70. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.80 of that profit. Without it you would make $10.50.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 14, 12:37 AM1 outcome stayed under 3% and is not plotted
Latest news
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- RBA interest rates: Reserve Bank holds cash rate at 4.35% but threatens more hikes if neededThe Guardian · 3d ago
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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the o…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s September monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its September 2, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their September 2, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.