Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 39.0¢
- Implied chance
- 39.0%
- Return if right
- 156.4%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 256.4 shares at 39.0¢ each.
YES wins: $256.41 back, a profit of $156.41. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $3.33 of that profit. Without it you would make $159.74.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 62.0¢
- Implied chance
- 62.0%
- Return if right
- 61.3%
- Spread cost
- 2%
If you put in $100
You get 161.3 shares at 62.0¢ each.
NO wins: $161.29 back, a profit of $61.29. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.31 of that profit. Without it you would make $62.60.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
headlines link to their publishers- How the economy is hurting Republicans’ midterm chancesThe Washington Post · 1h ago
- Republican, Democratic strategists on controversial campaign funding ahead of midtermsCBS News · 5h ago
- Congressional Republicans have proven themselves unworthy to governThe Hill · 6h ago
- Max Miller locked in as Republican nominee after Ohio ballot deadline passes without withdrawalFox News · 1d ago
- Max Miller, Republican Accused of Abuse, Won’t Drop Out, Spokeswoman SaysThe New York Times · 2d ago
- Are Republicans blind to the canaries in the Florida and Texas coal mines?The Hill · 2d ago
Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.