Will the Republicans win Miami-Dade County in the Florida Senate race in 2026?

Florida Senate Election: Miami-Dade County Winner$34 liquidity$104 volumecloses 2.1mo
MidtermsPoliticsElectionsUS ElectionFlorida MidtermSenate midterms
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Buy YES on Polymarket

BUY YES

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Cost
88.0¢
Implied chance
88.0%
Return if right
13.6%
Spread cost
87%

If you put in $100

You get 113.6 shares at 88.0¢ each.

YES wins: $113.64 back, a profit of $13.64. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $88.38 of that profit. Without it you would make $102.02.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy YES on Polymarket

Buy NO on Polymarket

BUY NO

Create an account to follow this trade

We keep it in one place with the price you saw, and email you when it settles or moves sharply. It is free, and the screener stays open to everyone either way.

Cost
89.0¢
Implied chance
89.0%
Return if right
12.4%
Spread cost
87%

If you put in $100

You get 112.4 shares at 89.0¢ each.

NO wins: $112.36 back, a profit of $12.36. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.

The gap between buyers and sellers takes $85.66 of that profit. Without it you would make $98.02.

Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.

Buy NO on Polymarket

Chance over time

0%25%50%75%100%52%47%Sep 1Sep 1

Latest: Sep 1, 07:08 PM

Latest news

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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the Republicans win Miami-Dade County in the Florida Se”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.

How this market resolves

This market will resolve according to the party nominee or independent candidate that receives the most valid votes from Miami-Dade County in the general special election for United States Senator from Florida, which is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. The candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidate last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. The nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties are named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the results of the election in the specified county are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Florida, including the Office of the Secretary of State and the government of Miami-Dade County.

Other outcomes in Florida Senate Election: Miami-Dade County Winner

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