Will the Republican Party win the WA-01 House seat?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 4.6¢
- Implied chance
- 4.6%
- Return if right
- 2073.9%
- Spread cost
- 26%
If you put in $100
You get 2173.9 shares at 4.6¢ each.
YES wins: $2173.91 back, a profit of $2073.91. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $724.64 of that profit. Without it you would make $2798.55.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 97.7¢
- Implied chance
- 97.7%
- Return if right
- 2.4%
- Spread cost
- 34%
If you put in $100
You get 102.4 shares at 97.7¢ each.
NO wins: $102.35 back, a profit of $2.35. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $1.22 of that profit. Without it you would make $3.57.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest news
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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the Republican Party win the WA-01 House seat?”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).