Will the Republican Party hold fewer than 22 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 58.0¢
- Implied chance
- 58.0%
- Return if right
- 72.4%
- Spread cost
- 53%
If you put in $100
You get 172.4 shares at 58.0¢ each.
YES wins: $172.41 back, a profit of $72.41. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $80.75 of that profit. Without it you would make $153.16.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 79.0¢
- Implied chance
- 79.0%
- Return if right
- 26.6%
- Spread cost
- 59%
If you put in $100
You get 126.6 shares at 79.0¢ each.
NO wins: $126.58 back, a profit of $26.58. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $38.71 of that profit. Without it you would make $65.29.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 04:02 PM2 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted
Latest news
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How this market resolves
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of United States governor’s seats that will be held by the Republican Party as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all gubernatorial elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. For governor seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the governor was elected. If a governor-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, after election day, the seat is attributed to the party under which the individual was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current governor who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the governor was affiliated at the time of the election. If a governorship is vacant but a corresponding election will not be held in November 2026, that seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Other outcomes in How many Republican Governors after the 2026 midterm elections?
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 30 or 31 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 28 or 29 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 24 or 25 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 22 or 23 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?
- Will the Republican Party hold 32 or more governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?