Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 12.0¢
- Implied chance
- 12.0%
- Return if right
- 733.3%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 833.3 shares at 12.0¢ each.
YES wins: $833.33 back, a profit of $733.33. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $36.23 of that profit. Without it you would make $769.57.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 89.0¢
- Implied chance
- 89.0%
- Return if right
- 12.4%
- Spread cost
- 5%
If you put in $100
You get 112.4 shares at 89.0¢ each.
NO wins: $112.36 back, a profit of $12.36. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $0.63 of that profit. Without it you would make $12.99.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 10, 03:25 PM3 outcomes stayed under 3% and are not plotted1 further outcome not shown
Latest news
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How this market resolves
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. If a Senate seat is vacant but a corresponding election is not held in November 2026, the seat will be considered held by the party of the seat's most recent incumbent. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all Senate elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Other outcomes in Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
- Will the Republican Party hold 57 or more Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 56 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
- Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?