Will the PQ win fewer than 50 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?
BUY YES
- Cost
- 60.0¢
- Implied chance
- 60.0%
- Return if right
- 66.7%
- Spread cost
- 64%
If you put in $100
You get 166.7 shares at 60.0¢ each.
YES wins: $166.67 back, a profit of $66.67. YES loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $119.05 of that profit. Without it you would make $185.71.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy YES on Polymarket
BUY NO
- Cost
- 90.0¢
- Implied chance
- 90.0%
- Return if right
- 11.1%
- Spread cost
- 79%
If you put in $100
You get 111.1 shares at 90.0¢ each.
NO wins: $111.11 back, a profit of $11.11. NO loses: $0.00, and the whole $100 is gone.
The gap between buyers and sellers takes $42.74 of that profit. Without it you would make $53.85.
Assumes the whole order fills at this price. A large order eats into the book and averages worse.
Buy NO on Polymarket
Latest: Aug 27, 05:45 PM2 further outcomes not shown
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Headlines are matched on the names in “Will the PQ win fewer than 50 seats in the National Assembly…”. Nobody checks them by hand, so one may not be relevant. They also say nothing about whether the price has already moved on this news.
How this market resolves
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered. If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Source: https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca
Other outcomes in Quebec General Election: PQ # Seats?
- Will the PQ win 50-54 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?
- Will the PQ win 70-74 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?
- Will the PQ win 75-79 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?
- Will the PQ win 55-59 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?
- Will the PQ win 65-69 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?
- Will the PQ win 60-64 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?
- Will the PQ win 80 or more seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?